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AMEN BANQUE : Analyse

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Posté le 29/06/2025 19:03:10

@Lassaad2,

Tout d'abord merci pour votre analyse.

Je pense qu'il n'est pas possible de déduire un comportement boursier d'un titre sur une période de 20 ans qui comporte des événements importants et chaotiques ( Révolution de 2011 , attentats terroristes, crise covid19 ...).

Cependant je suis d'accord avec vous sur l'opportunité d'investir dans Amen Bank.

En deux mots : c'est un titre très liquide et qui peut offrir (très probablement) un rendement annuel de 25% ( entre div et hausse du cours) pour les trois prochaines années.


J'ai aussi utilisé Investing dot com, mais d'une autre manière :


Provide a comprehensive fundamental analysis of Amen Bank. In your response, include: • An evaluation of key financial metrics such as revenue growth rate, profit margins, and EPS, with supporting figures • Analysis of balance sheet strength, including liquidity ratios, debt-to-equity ratios, and cash flow generation • A review of valuation measures (e.g., P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA) compared to industry peers • A discussion on qualitative factors, such as competitive advantages, market position, and sector trends Where applicable, include charts or tables that highlight the key metrics and trends for a high-quality analysis

Parsing the Metrics, Analysis, News, Charts data - revelation on its way!

Amen Bank’s stock is up an impressive 18.7% over the past year, with a latest price of DT41.65 and a robust net income margin of 50.2%—both signaling strong underlying profitability. Yet, recent fundamentals reveal a mix of accelerating earnings power and emerging balance sheet caution that every investor should watch closely.

🚀 Profits: Margin Masterclass

• Revenue growth: Amen Bank posted a 21.9% surge in 2023, followed by a still-solid 6.7% increase in 2024 (to DT485.07M). The bank’s net income margin hit a remarkable 50.2% in 2024, up steadily from 33.4% in 2020. That’s an enviable level even among emerging-market banks, reflecting tight cost control and strong pricing power.

• EPS (Earnings Per Share): Basic EPS jumped from DT2.82 (2020) to DT6.97 (2024), a 147% rise over four years. The 2024 EPS growth was 12.5%, but the real breakout was 2023’s 41.9% gain.

• Dividend yield: A generous 8.2% in 2024, with the bank raising its dividend for three consecutive years—a clear signal of management confidence.

🛡️ Balance Sheet: Strengths & Red Flags

• Debt-to-equity: After a steady decline to 75.9% in 2023, this metric ticked up to 92.1% in 2024. While still reasonable for a bank, the reversal merits monitoring.

• Liquidity: Quick ratio remains low at 0.2x—typical for banks, but leaves little room for liquidity shocks.

• Cash from operations: Volatile, swinging from DT470.51M inflow in 2023 to just DT63.31M in 2024. Such swings can indicate shifting loan books or investment timing rather than structural weakness but require a cautious eye.

💸 Valuation: Bargain or Value Trap?

Metric 2024 Value Sector Typical WarrenAI Take

Price/Earnings 6.0x 8–12x Deep value territory

Price/Book 0.9x 1.0–1.5x Trading below book value

EV/EBITDA N/A 8–10x Data not available

Fair Value Unlock

— Market price near fair value

• P/E at 6.0x is well below sector averages, suggesting the market is discounting future risks or growth limitations.

• Price/book at 0.9x means shares trade at a slight discount to book value—a classic “margin of safety” screen for value investors, but rarely seen when banks show double-digit ROE.

• Fair value and analyst target: With a

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fair value upside, Amen Bank is trading almost exactly at its estimated intrinsic value.

🏦 Competitive Position & Sector Trends

• Return on equity (ROE): At 14.9% in 2024, Amen Bank delivers premium capital efficiency, outpacing many regional peers.

• Sector: In the

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industry, part of the

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sector, Amen Bank benefits from Tunisia’s ongoing banking sector reforms and rising digitalization.

• Moat: The ability to raise dividends, sustain high profitability, and keep costs low hints at operational advantages and strong customer relationships—key differentiators in emerging markets.

• Market position: One of Tunisia’s established banking names since 1967, with a broad retail and business banking footprint.

• Risks: The negative

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and volatile operating cash flow suggest reinvestment or capital structure shifts that could dampen near-term returns if not managed carefully.

📊 Key Metrics Snapshot

Year Revenue (DT M) Net Margin (%) EPS (DT) ROE (%) Debt/Equity (%)

2020 294.96 33.4 2.82 — 114.0

2021 345.18 39.4 3.90 — 94.1

2022 372.88 40.9 4.37 — 100.1

2023 454.63 47.6 6.20 — 75.9

2024 485.07 50.2 6.97 14.9 92.1

🧭 WarrenAI Takeaway

Amen Bank delivers a rare mix of deep value (6x P/E, 0.9x P/B), surging profitability (50% margins), and sector leadership—but balance sheet volatility and a fair value fully priced in mean caution is warranted. For investors seeking yield and emerging-market exposure, Amen Bank is a case study in disciplined growth—just keep an eye on cash flow and capital trends.

This content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.


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Posté le 29/06/2025 18:44:32

@Lord et @ramos dans l'analyse j'ai voulu justifier que l'action et en phase de correction avant la reprise de la hausse et j'ai suggéré de surveiller la fin de la correction pour se positionner. Les fibos, je l'ai mises pour justifier le décompte pour les connaisseurs.


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Posté le 29/06/2025 18:40:41

hhh n'essaye pas de comprendre ou de masturber vos esprits hhh biat nominal 5 est a +93dt attijari nominal 5dt est +57dt normal Amen bank upupup


Je suis heureux que notre expert Naiuja Elinojas contenu sa jouissance pour dégrader et carboniser notre banque STB de nominal 5dt enregistrant le meilleur taux de croissance des bénéfices +82,5 milliards et +60% mais cotee a 2,8dt cad a -44% de son nominal cad -70% de ses capitaux propres ..


Bravooo naiuja


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Posté le 29/06/2025 17:58:23

@lassad c'est tres technique et en plus compliqué

Si possible simplifier votre analyse et un petit commentaire pour résumer

Merci d'avance


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Posté le 29/06/2025 16:23:27

Tu peux nous simplfier ca un peu?? :)


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Posté le 29/06/2025 14:53:03

Pour Amen banque un décompte de vagues en mensuel, permet de de détecter qu’on est en sous vague 4 de la vague 5 d’un cycle qui a commencé depuis 20 ans !.

J’ai tracé à gauche le trend fib extension reliant la vague 1,2 et 3 qui permet de constater que la vague 3 a fait a peu près 461,8 % de la vague 1.

Après le retracement de la fibo : on constate que la vague 4 a tracé 78,6 % de la vague 3.

Après le trend fib extension reliant les sous vagues 1,2 et 3 de la vague 5 : on constate quje la sous vague 3 de la vague 5 a fait 261,8 % de la sous vague 1

A droite le retracement de la Fibo pour surveiller le retracement de la sous vague 4 de correction.

Un bon plan de trading consiste à attendre la fin de retracement pour se positionner et jouer la sous vague 5 de la vague 5.



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